Agricultural Change and Population Growth: District-Level Evidence From India

Green Revolution technologies were developed and promoted in the 1960s in response to alarm about impending famine in Asia. By boosting food supplies and fostering development, the technologies were expected to create "breathing space" for completing demographic transitions there. This paper uses District-level data from rural India on agricultural transformation (from 1961 to 1981) and on changes in human fertility (from 1971 to 1981) to examine whether they did so. In a reduced form model, female literacy and marriage rates emerged as strong fertility change determinants; effects varied by age cohort. Growth in real wages in rural areas, in part brought about by HYV technologies, accelerated fertility declines. With real wage growth effects of Green Revolution technologies controlled for, faster diffusion of wheat and rice HYV each led to faster fertility declines; greater diffusion of bajra (millet) HYV was associated with smaller fertility declines. Policy action to enhance fertility declines may be worthwhile regardless of agricultural sector goals, but policymakers should be aware of direct and indirect effects of agricultural intensification policies on human fertility.International Development, Q16, J1, Q18, D1, O3,

The Effects of Agricultural Research and Farm Subsidy Policies on Human Nutrition and Obesity

Agricultural policies including farm programs and R&D are said to have contributed to obesity by making food commodities cheaper and thereby encouraging consumption. This paper explores the links from agricultural policy to food prices and consumption and suggests that contribution of agricultural policy to obesity is not so clear.Agricultural and Food Policy,

The impact of technical change in agriculture on human fertility: district-level evidence from India

Green Revolution technologies were developed and promoted to boost food supplies and foster development, both of which were expected to create "breathing space" for achieving demographic transitions in developing countries through lowered human fertility. Little comprehensive research, however, has been done on the effects of those technologies themselves on human fertility leaving unanswered the question of whether particular types of agricultural technologies were actually increasing, or decreasing, this demographic "breathing space." This paper uses District-level data from rural India on agricultural change (from 1961 to 1981) and changes in human fertility (from 1971 to 1981) to assess the impact of the former on the latter, with particular emphasis on high yielding (HYV) Green Revolution technologies. Modifying a conceptual framework derived from theory on the determinants of fertility, and estimating a reduced form model that explicitly accounts for endogeneity of real wage growth, we find that, while socio-cultural and demographic factors were the strongest determinants of fertility change: a) Green Revolution and related technologies did have an impact on fertility change; b) that the magnitude and direction of this impact was technology specific; and c) that the impact was only partially due to the effect of the new technologies on changes in real wage growth.Green Revolution India., Green technology., Fertility, Human India., Agricultural innovations.,

Are Agricultural Policies Making Us Fat? Likely Links Between Agricultural Policies and Human Nutrition and Obesity, and their Policy Implications

Rates of obesity among adults and children in the U.S. are soaring, with potentially huge private and social costs. Increasing attention is being paid to agricultural policies as both the culprits through their perceived roles in reducing the relative prices of energy-dense foods, and as the potential saviors through their perceived ability to do the opposite. However, the effects of agricultural policies on human nutrition and obesity are not well understood. This paper considers (1) trends in agricultural commodity prices, and the contributions of commodity policies and agricultural R&D policies to those trends, (2) the links between changes in commodity prices and changes in food prices; and (3) the implications of price-induced changes in food characteristics for human nutrition outcomes. Preliminary results suggest that agricultural R&D has led to dramatic decreases in costs of production and to consequent long-term declines in commodity prices, but the links between commodity price declines and food prices are less clear and are conditioned by the changing structure of food markets. Commodity-specific trade policy has clearly put upward pressure on the domestic prices of several major food commodities, but the consumer prices for most of these foods have fallen nonetheless. Changes in relative prices of 'healthy' versus 'unhealthy' foods are difficult to establish empirically, but even if 'healthy' foods are becoming relatively more expensive, food prices in general play only a small role in determining food consumption; hence, policies aiming to reduce obesity through changes in relative food prices may prove ineffective or inefficient.H5, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Q18, Q16, I0,

The Physical, Social, and Cultural Determinants of Obesity: An Empirical Study of the U.S.

During the past three decades, levels of excess weight and obesity have risen significantly in the United States. The reasons are physical, economical and sociological. The second half of the twentieth century is characterized by changes in the diets and levels of activity in the American society. Recent studies that focus on simple explanations that are based on a few determinants or classes of determinants are inadequate in explaining the recent rise in obesity. Cross-sectional and time series data are analyzed with a variety of statistical techniques. This paper empirically examines the factors correlated with the drastic increase in excess weight in the United States. Demographic characteristics (e.g., race and gender) and income level are significantly related to obesity. Controlling for these factors, energy expenditure in physical exercise are also linked to obesity. This study suggests that policies that merely target on food consumption and physical exercise levels are likely to be inadequate. Successful policies will have to produce specific messages that are relevant for distinct cultural, racial, gender, and income groups. Examples of such group-specific messages are provided.I0, D1, J2, Health Economics and Policy,

Household demand persistence for child micronutrient supplementation.

Addressing early-life micronutrient deficiencies can improve short- and long-term outcomes. In most contexts, private supply chains will be key to effective and efficient preventative supplementation. With established vendors, we conducted a 60-week market trial for a food-based micronutrient supplement in rural Burkina Faso with randomized price and non-price treatments. Repeat purchases - critical for effective supplementation - are extremely price sensitive. Loyalty cards boost demand more than price discounts, particularly in non-poor households where the father is the cardholder. A small minority of households achieved sufficient supplementation for their children through purely retail distribution, suggesting the need for more creative public-private delivery platforms informed by insights into household demand persistence and heterogeneity

The Demand for Inputs and the Supply of Output in Pakistan: Estimating a Fixedeffects, Distributed-lag Model for Wheat Farmers

Agricultural growth in Pakistan over the past 3 decades has been very impressive, averaging 3.3 percent annually over the period 1965-80, and accelerating to 4.3 percent per year over the period 1980-90. But as impressive as these numbers are, questions arise regarding the success of the agricultural sector in terms of meeting food and employment needs, the potential for continuing or increasing growth rates in the future, the likely sources of future agricultural growth, and the technologies, policies, and institutional arrangements necessary to achieve that growth. The truth is that agriculture in general, and food production in particular, have been working hard to just to keep pace with other sectors and with the food needs of the domestic population. Agriculture was the slowest growing sector in Pakistan over the past 30 years, with general economic expansion moving along at an average of 5.2 percent annually over the 1965-80 period, and of 6.3 percent per year over the decade of the 1980s. In addition, in spite of very . substantial production and productivity gains for most major crops, the average index of food production per capita remained constant over the 1980-90 period, while the total volume of cereal imports nearly doubled to over 2,048,000 metric tons [World Development Report (1992)]

External review of the Rimisp Rural Territorial Dynamics (RTD) project : scientific contributions and policy influence

The Rimisp-RTD project has undertaken a body of research on rural territorial dynamics that is unprecedented in Latin American Countries (LAC) as regards its geographic scope, uniformity, and depth. This evaluation reviews the program’s scientific contributions and policy influence; a companion evaluation focuses on organizational issues. It has become clear that territories could be created based on shared, grass-roots visions of the opportunities for sustainable, inclusive growth, and on the shared commitments to promote it. The circumstances under which place-based policies may be more cost-effective than spatially-blind policies are beginning to emerge. The Rimisp website is also reviewed

Integrating Economic Analysis with a Randomized Controlled Trial: Willingness-to-Pay for a New Maternal Nutrient Supplement

Maternal nutrition during pregnancy can have significant implications for a child’s prenatal growth and development, and undernutrition experienced during the prenatal period increases the risk of early childhood morbidity and mortality and can permanently impair a child’s physical growth and cognitive development. We use new data from Ghana generated using contingent valuation and experimental auction techniques to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for LNS, a new nutrient supplement aimed at preventing maternal undernutrition during pregnancy. We also explore the relative importance of individual and household characteristics as well as information about the long-term benefits of preventing undernutrition on WTP. We find that WTP is positive for a large majority of individuals in our samples, and the level of WTP varies significantly with individual and household characteristics including gender, household food insecurity, and household expenditures. These findings suggest important policy implications for the development of delivery options and pricing mechanisms for LNS.Economic Development, Nutrition, Willingness-to-Pay, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, International Development,